Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 32,061
2 Florida 29,380
3 Mississippi 28,084
4 Arizona 27,803
5 Alabama 26,027
6 Georgia 24,162
7 South Carolina 23,276
8 Nevada 22,631
9 New York 22,630
10 Tennessee 22,444
11 Texas 22,262
12 New Jersey 21,849
13 Iowa 20,869
14 Rhode Island 20,769
15 Arkansas 20,378
16 District of Columbia 19,906
17 Illinois 18,869
18 Massachusetts 18,699
19 Idaho 18,299
20 California 18,136
21 Maryland 18,087
22 Delaware 18,007
23 Nebraska 17,873
24 Utah 16,377
25 North Carolina 16,205
26 North Dakota 15,751
27 South Dakota 15,541
28 Oklahoma 15,011
29 Kansas 14,928
30 Connecticut 14,867
31 Indiana 14,406
32 Virginia 14,248
33 Missouri 14,222
34 Wisconsin 14,029
35 Minnesota 13,547
36 New Mexico 12,142
37 Kentucky 11,585
38 Michigan 11,411
39 Pennsylvania 10,903
40 Ohio 10,660
41 Puerto Rico 10,464
42 Washington 10,251
43 Colorado 10,092
44 Alaska 8,350
45 Montana 7,041
46 Wyoming 6,679
47 Oregon 6,391
48 Hawaii 6,093
49 West Virginia 5,862
50 New Hampshire 5,366
51 Maine 3,383
52 Vermont 2,620

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 304
2 Alabama 253
3 North Dakota 225
4 Iowa 212
5 Tennessee 193
6 Louisiana 189
7 Florida 186
8 Missouri 184
9 Kansas 181
10 Mississippi 174
11 Oklahoma 172
12 South Carolina 168
13 Idaho 154
14 Georgia 152
15 Nebraska 141
16 North Carolina 140
17 Illinois 139
18 Kentucky 137
19 Texas 134
20 Minnesota 124
21 Arkansas 123
22 Indiana 122
23 Nevada 122
24 Hawaii 120
25 California 119
26 Virginia 109
27 Wisconsin 109
28 Utah 105
29 Rhode Island 100
30 West Virginia 100
31 Ohio 93
32 Puerto Rico 90
33 Maryland 86
34 Montana 84
35 Delaware 63
36 Michigan 62
37 District of Columbia 58
38 Alaska 56
39 Washington 53
40 Oregon 52
41 Pennsylvania 52
42 Arizona 48
43 Connecticut 47
44 Wyoming 47
45 Colorado 45
46 New Mexico 44
47 Massachusetts 41
48 New Jersey 36
49 New York 36
50 Vermont 16
51 Maine 14
52 New Hampshire 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,795
2 New York 1,673
3 Massachusetts 1,315
4 Connecticut 1,252
5 Louisiana 1,072
6 Rhode Island 991
7 District of Columbia 860
8 Mississippi 837
9 Arizona 693
10 Michigan 677
11 Illinois 654
12 Maryland 622
13 Delaware 621
14 Pennsylvania 606
15 South Carolina 535
16 Florida 529
17 Georgia 527
18 Indiana 491
19 Alabama 448
20 Texas 448
21 Nevada 426
22 New Mexico 375
23 Iowa 356
24 Ohio 356
25 Colorado 339
26 California 332
27 Minnesota 331
28 New Hampshire 317
29 Virginia 306
30 Arkansas 269
31 Missouri 269
32 Washington 265
33 North Carolina 264
34 Tennessee 256
35 Kentucky 220
36 Nebraska 209
37 Idaho 207
38 Oklahoma 204
39 North Dakota 195
40 Wisconsin 195
41 South Dakota 188
42 Kansas 155
43 Puerto Rico 136
44 Utah 127
45 West Virginia 123
46 Oregon 110
47 Maine 98
48 Montana 98
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 70
51 Hawaii 51
52 Alaska 49

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 7
2 Louisiana 5
3 Arkansas 4
4 Florida 4
5 Georgia 4
6 Alabama 3
7 South Carolina 3
8 Texas 3
9 California 2
10 Hawaii 2
11 Idaho 2
12 Kentucky 2
13 Missouri 2
14 New Mexico 2
15 Tennessee 2
16 Wyoming 2
17 Arizona 1
18 Illinois 1
19 Indiana 1
20 Iowa 1
21 Massachusetts 1
22 Nevada 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 North Dakota 1
25 Ohio 1
26 Oklahoma 1
27 Rhode Island 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Washington 1
30 West Virginia 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 Delaware 0
35 District of Columbia 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maine 0
38 Maryland 0
39 Michigan 0
40 Minnesota 0
41 Montana 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 New Jersey 0
45 New York 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Pennsylvania 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 South Dakota 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 143,389 1 99
Lafayette Florida 142,959 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 123,464 3 99
Lake Tennessee 119,726 4 99
Lee Arkansas 113,357 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 37,484 164 94
Richland South Carolina 27,331 358 88
Orange California 15,375 1014 67
York South Carolina 15,311 1019 67
Pierce Washington 8,349 1861 40

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,434 5 99
Richland South Carolina 471 689 78
Davidson Tennessee 373 890 71
Orange California 311 1046 66
Pierce Washington 207 1395 55
York South Carolina 167 1563 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons